Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 14.405798 16.443485 18.628183 21.140209 23.944167 26.972936 30.487282
2025-09-07 11.400819 14.180980 17.384339 21.329764 26.038563 31.457523 38.143628
2025-09-14 10.056428 13.212562 17.018261 21.910122 27.992474 35.264490 44.570669
2025-09-21 8.662139 11.974630 16.139973 21.706860 28.888847 37.773031 49.515194
2025-09-28 7.296966 10.569869 14.845961 20.765454 28.658472 38.720927 52.402345
2025-10-05 6.745371 10.168439 14.788314 21.375675 30.404013 42.204095 58.625161
2025-10-12 6.223778 9.739815 14.631108 21.798991 31.874077 45.344676 64.489176
2025-10-19 5.603158 9.099236 14.109935 21.651713 32.514903 47.360260 68.887995
2025-10-26 5.049139 8.497566 13.583395 21.435615 33.010706 49.157240 73.016883
2025-11-02 4.630077 8.058395 13.251750 21.461923 33.825948 51.401193 77.822304
2025-11-09 4.297321 7.721247 13.040667 21.638748 34.847213 53.953687 83.135737
2025-11-16 3.945367 7.318225 12.691755 21.569939 35.478191 55.943611 87.687500
2025-11-23 3.593092 6.889127 12.278701 21.386512 35.942679 57.736757 92.073871
2025-11-30 3.336606 6.600679 12.070238 21.510132 36.880002 60.264913 97.642201
2025-12-07 3.195802 6.501694 12.163488 22.119405 38.597131 64.023331 105.177426
2025-12-14 2.924040 6.138459 11.779203 21.905775 38.971603 65.716005 109.603346
2025-12-21 2.562610 5.571444 10.996032 20.959753 38.087363 65.385884 110.857526
2025-12-28 2.472430 5.516737 11.115790 21.573888 39.813309 69.242847 118.797685
2026-01-04 2.361407 5.410091 11.131680 22.001025 41.235183 72.653250 126.130863
2026-01-11 2.181452 5.146769 10.837802 21.852413 41.656561 74.442312 130.907515
2026-01-18 2.008599 4.881061 10.518788 21.634609 41.938765 76.000118 135.344344
2026-01-25 1.879478 4.695593 10.339553 21.661114 42.645085 78.278485 141.023925
2026-02-01 1.777369 4.559066 10.245599 21.839381 43.624242 81.041632 147.583492